Parlimen tergantung siapa bakal jadi PM,Muhyiddin Yaasin ,Ku Li,Anwar atau TGHA?

Kawan saya sms kat saya ;
Nomura Economics Research kata BN akan menang pru 13 tak lebih daripada 124 kerusi parlimen.Jika PR menang pru 13 tak lebih daripada 120 kerusi parlimen.Parlimen dijangka berada dalam keadaan tergantung 20%.Saya pun cari laporan penuh tu ada di sini;
The Edge/Sun Daily: Nomura Economics Research said the upcoming general election (GE), which is likely to be held on a weekend between April 6 and 20, 2013, could make or break its relatively positive economic outlook on Malaysia.

"Our baseline scenario is for the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) to win, but by a smaller majority of 120-124 seats, which is lower than what we had previously penciled in, partly because recent surveys show an emboldened and well-organised opposition," said Nomura in its "Asia Special Report: Southeast Asia" dated March 6, 2013.

"This raises uncertainty over whether there would be an orderly transition of power, whether Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul Razak remains in power and whether the much-needed economic reforms can continue," it added.

Nomura has painted three potential election scenarios and their impacts on the economy.

The first scenario is that the ruling coalition will win a smaller majority of 120-124 seats out of 222. BN currently holds 137 seats.

"Although there is scope for some relief on this baseline result because a small minority of the market sees the opposition actually winning the election, we believe this will be short-lived owing to the immediate implications of a small majority.

"A simple majority in parliament calling a no-confidence vote could emerge when parliament convenes for its first session 60 days after the election. This would raise political and economic uncertainty," said Nomura.

The second scenario is that the number of seats won by the opposition and the ruling coalition are marginally less than 120 seats, which would likely be an accelerated ousting of the prime minister.

Nomura said within this 20% probability, there is a small chance of the election leading to a hung parliament.

"The risk of such an outcome includes policy paralysis, potential protests, calls for a recount or even an annulment of the election results, which can be called within three weeks of the election announcement," said Nomura.

Risk of a no-confidence vote from the opposition on the prime minister will also be even greater, while internal party pressure could also lead to a change in Umno leadership.

"Currently, Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin is seen as a potential replacement for Najib and viewed by the market as somewhat hard-line. This change could emerge earlier than the planned October/November 2013 party elections.

"With the negative political backdrop and economic risks, as well as possible delays in investment projects, these could lead to a sovereign rating downgrade," the research firm said.Baca di sini.

Najib pada masa tu dah tak ada harapan untuk jadi PM.Orang Umno sendiri akan halau beliau turun tahkta sebagai PM.Rosmah menangis tak berlagu.Rosmah la ni syok promosi diri macam orang tak ada dosa hinggakan buku beliau akan diedarkan keseluruh sekolah di Malaysia. Muhyiddin gelak sampai telinga kerana Umno akan tabalkan beliau sebagai PM baru.

Adakah begitu mudah untuk Muhyiddin jadi PM baru?Haha Bagaimana jika berlaku undi tidak percaya dalam parlimen?Bagaimana jika berlaku pakatan dalam gelap antara Pas,Umno dan PKR siapa pulak yang akan jadi PM?Adakah Ku Li,Anwar dan juga TGHA?Bagi yang syok dengan Ku Li Gurkha Umno tu tentu akan lakukan sesuatu agar Ku Li ditabalkan sebagai PM.Dalam politik macam-macam boleh jadi.Belum menang lawan hangit dah dapat kerusi jadi pengkhianat.

Hingga kini Najib belum umumkan pembubaran parlimen.Ketakutan Najib amat jelas.Menang tipis tak dapat jadi PM kalau kalah teruk lagi malu.Duit dah banyak habis untuk beli undi rakyat sokong BN.

Dalam keadaan sekarang yang patut jadi pilihan anda ialah PR bukan BN!Tumbangkan BNdalam pru 13!